what do you know

I would not have believed the credit crisis would have gotten this bad had I been told. I felt like a housing downturn was certainly coming, but could not have predicted this catastrophe. That said, I do believe the entire mess is oversold and likely to recorrect in the opposite direction once investors realize and get comfort that the bailout is working, and I do believe it will work.

Has anyone heard the term "recession" recently, it seems to be noticeably absent from the conversation taking place on public radio and in the newspapers. Can we finally say it has arrived? I think the sooner that happens, and once investors realize that its not over and we will go on living and making a living, the market will recorrect. The amount of uncertainty and fear priced into the market at this moment is beyond measure. Be brave?

I have been looking for another house, as an investment or to live in and rent my current house. There are definitely some serious deals out there. I can offer cash, no financing, and am relatively fearless when I see a giant mess. Just to give you an idea, I have been seriously looking for about 4 weeks, and have seen two houses I was interested in (my criteria is extremely tight) made one offer and lost.

I will go ahead and be brave, since if things get worse it wont matter anyway. Another sign we are near bottom, the Oracle is making serious moves, that more than anything gives me comfort. If I had those resources I would do the same, but I don't. The biggest move I could make at this point is new house.

For the stock market, I am simply playing long term odds, like a decades long game of black jack, no 10 points cards for a while, so they must be on their way! Right? Just stay at the table.